US record oil exports bite into Russia, Opec market share in Asia

Posted May 31, 2018

The spread between Brent and WTI stands at around $8.7 a barrel, the widest since March 2015 due to the depressed price of United States crude compared to Brent.

Based on the data, the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, has the cheapest price among the top 10 consumers - $0.54 a litre for petrol and $0.13 a litre for diesel. Both the United States and European oil drops in the market as the global oil supply report increasing number of supply.

Saudi Arabia clearly in favour of higher oil pricesThe success of Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit target is dependent on oil prices. A sell-off in emerging market currencies, not least Turkey, together with political developments in Italy and Spain also helped give gold a boost. At first the least controversial decision could be for the group to raise production by 300-500,000 barrels/day to meet the shortfall from Venezuela thereby bring the compliance back to 100% from the +150% seen in recent months.

Was a phone call all it took for Al-Falih to make a U-turn in his statements regarding oil prices and start assuring the market that there is sufficient supply and there is no reason why Brent should trade above US$80? Subtropical Storm Alberto lost strength as it came ashore near Laguna Beach in Florida, bringing heavy rains that threaten the US south with economic losses of $1 billion.

Looming shortages of supply and strong demand will combine with the marine fuel regulation in 2020 to put additional pressure on the physical oil market.

The short-term focus will center on the June 22 Opec meeting in Vienna.

According to agency reports, Brent now commands its largest premium over USA futures in more than three years, and this implies that United States exports are rapidly becoming far more competitive globally than those from northern Europe, Russia or parts of the Middle East.

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The increase in oil prices is not only affecting Zimbabwe, but all non-producing oil countries in the developing world.

The Saudis also have to balance the geopolitics of oil, striking a balance between their need for relatively high prices against the support of U.S. President Donald Trump in their struggle against regional rival Iran.

The emerging theory to explain the possibility of OPEC turning the taps back on is that US president Donald Trump recently abandoning the Iran nuclear deal pleased rival Saudi Arabia, which is now being persuaded by Trump to put more barrels on the market - thus lowering prices and deflecting blame that he is responsible for high gas prices.

Major crude oil benchmarks were spread by as much as 2 percent in early Tuesday trading as trade uncertainty balanced an expected increase in production.

"The pace of the recent rise in oil prices has sparked a debate among investors on whether this poses downside risks to global growth", Chetan Ahya, chief economist at US bank Morgan Stanley, wrote in a weekend note.

The prices are heavily pressured on the statement Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia made.

"The market has not appreciated yet the degree and scope of these changes", Joswick said. Due to a sharp decline in oil prices between 2014 and 2017, about one-third of the shale companies went bankrupt or became financially distressed.